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Analysts estimate annual budget losses from the legal monopoly

Due to the monopoly of lawyers in courts, the budget could lose up to 140 billion rubles.

The adoption of the bill on the legal monopoly proposed by the Ministry of Justice could lead to a significant reduction in tax revenues to the Russian budget as early as 2028. Analysts at the Analytika. Business. Law research center analyzed publicly available data for the last five years and assessed the possible consequences of the changes for the legal market.

Analysts estimate annual budget losses from the legal monopoly
Фото: generated by AI, source: reve.art

According to experts, new amendments published by the Ministry of Justice in July 2025 for public discussion stipulate that only lawyers will be able to represent parties in court. Specialists without the appropriate status will be deprived of this opportunity. The total tax and social security contributions from non-lawyer representation in court are estimated at approximately 20-25 billion rubles per year.

According to forecasts, in the first five years after the introduction of the monopoly, the budget will lose about 130-140 billion rubles. Annual losses are estimated to increase from 25 billion in 2028 to 30 billion by 2032. At the same time, the possible increase in prices for legal services will not be able to compensate for the drop in tax revenues, as the legal profession enjoys more favorable conditions for tax collection.

Mikhail Bozor, CEO of the law firm Afonin, Bozor & Partners, stressed that the law will not have a significant impact on unscrupulous lawyers, the so-called “black” specialists, who often force clients to pay for overpriced services. According to him, the activities of such lawyers formally comply with the law, but the financial effect for clients remains negative. The main way to reduce the number of unscrupulous players in the market, according to Bozor's Izvestia, is to introduce mandatory licensing of law firms.

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Author: Наталья Чудесатова

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