According to political scientist Maria Prokofieva, tensions between the US and Venezuela have been growing for a long time, since the summer, when Donald Trump launched an aggressive crackdown on Latin American drug cartels.
Nearly twenty people were killed in US strikes on ships allegedly carrying drugs. Trump even called the standoff a "non-international armed conflict," and Nicolás Maduro launched a national defense plan called "Independence 200."
Despite Venezuela's readiness for negotiations and diplomacy, the US threat is becoming increasingly real, due to rumors of a possible US troop landing, FederalPress reports.
Prokofieva noted that the US could attempt a limited operation, such as a small landing or precision airstrikes using precision weapons to target key targets, similar to Israel's actions against Hamas. Officially, the fight against drug trafficking is a cover for pressuring the Maduro regime, which greatly irritates Trump and Senator Rubio.
The most likely scenario is precisely such a targeted operation. Although it is unlikely to begin during Nobel Week, there are already too many signals of increased pressure for a simple psychological assault on the regime. Maduro, in turn, could use the external threat to consolidate his power. He has already signed a decree granting emergency powers in the event of a military invasion.
As for defense, Venezuela has a modern air defense system, including Russian S-300 air defense systems, which could partially repel possible attacks. Overall, the country is prepared for a protracted confrontation. But Trump, as before, wants to quickly achieve victory and declare it, regardless of the actual state of affairs.