Experts believe that Russia's GDP could fall sharply by more than 8% at the beginning of next year.
The recession in the Russian economy will last until the third quarter of 2023. This is the opinion of analysts published by Bloomberg.
Experts expect that at the beginning of next year Russia's GDP may fall sharply by more than 8%, with the fall starting already at the end of this year. GDP growth can be expected at the end of the third quarter of 2023.
Bloomberg Economics predicts that GDP will fall by 3.5% in 2022 and another 2% next year.
Economist Alexander Isakov notes that the manufacturing sector and the energy industry are shrinking in Russia due to the sanctions. And a number of instruments to stimulate domestic demand will soon run out of steam. This applies, for example, to mortgage subsidies.
Morgan Stanley economists also draw attention to the fact that the Russian economy is undergoing a transformation, during which technology is being replaced by obsolete because of the sanctions, and this may slow down growth.