A sharp rate hike in August should have an impact on the economy in 3-6 months.
Maxim Fedorov, Investment Advisor at Fontvielle Investment Company, explained to RIAMO why the key rate will not be changed at the Central Bank's meeting on September 15.
Recall, the Central Bank on August 15 raised the key rate from 8.5% per annum to 12%.
Fyodorov considers it unlikely to both increase and decrease the key rate at the next meeting, as there are no prerequisites for this.
Changing the key rate to 12% will affect the economy not immediately, but only after 3-6 months. And it will be possible to give preliminary estimates of the impact of the rate increase not earlier than mid-November. Now, as Fedorov states, the Russian economy is moving by inertia.
The Central Bank is now observing a tight monetary policy, which is necessary for the recovery of the Russian economy in various areas.
"At the same time, the Central Bank only has to assess the effect of measures already taken, which means that the most likely decision at the September meeting is to keep the key rate unchanged, i.e. at 12% per annum," the expert said.
Analysts at SberCIB Investment Research also believe that the Bank of Russia will not raise the key rate in the coming months.